intelligence community really knows when Russia conducts exercises, and it was an exercise. Why do we know it was an exercise? Because the U.S. Cyber Command: We knew they weren’t going to invade in April 2021. Paul Nakasone, director, National Security Agency, and commander, U.S. Jon Finer: For obvious reasons, given the history of 2014, given the conflict that had been going on ever since, it raised real concerns about their intention. There was no other credible explanation for what they were up to. Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, White House: That was deeply alarming, because it was out of historical norms. At that point, the only military action that seemed plausible was a much smaller incursion. Putin is clearly considering military action on some level. There was definitely a moment where I recognized that this is not just a force buildup for diplomatic effect. Jon Finer, deputy national security adviser, National Security Council, White House: In the spring of 2021, we started to see a concerning buildup of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.Īvril Haines, director of National Intelligence: In that April-March period, I’d seen it build up. The national defense strategy said, “Hey, the pacing threat is China, but Russia is this acute threat out there.” I always had that in the back of my mind - Russia is potentially very, very dangerous. I’ve been thinking about the Russians for a very long time. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency: DIA is supposed to be the master sense-makers of militaries around the world - how they’re organized, trained, equipped, where they are, why they fight, when they would fight, what their doctrine is and what their leaders are all about.
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